Mechanical Sports Betting System

If you read any book about sports betting or any kind of article about sports betting, what will you learn? Bet the underdogs! Every book, website, tout, service, you name it, are always telling you to bet the dogs. If everyone is betting the dogs, are the odds for favourites too high?

European football leagues are starting soon and to prepare myself for them, I did a small study using the data from the last two seasons from Premier League, Bundesleague, Serie A and La Liga Primera.

Premier League

Dogs 760 / 542 / 0.71 / -21.8k

Fav. 760 / 728 / 0.96 / -3.2k

Bundesleague

Dogs 612 / 578 / 0.94 / -3.4k

Fav. 612 / 563 / 0.92 / -4.9k

Serie A

Dogs 760 / 551 / 0.73 / -20.9k

Fav. 760 / 717 / 0.94 / -4.3k

La Liga Premier

Dogs 760 / 748 / 0.98 / -1.2k

Fav. 760 / 704 / 0.93 / -5.6k

How do you read that table? Let’s take Premier League for example. In the past 2 seasons you have had 760 games. If you had played every dog, your total odds would have been 542 (btw, I am using the European style odds, 1.35 etc.), return 0.71 (542/760) and for a $100 bet on every dog, you would have lost $21800.

What is interesting is that playing the favourites is a much better tactic in general, IF(!) you play every game. Only in Spain, your best tactic is to play every dog and almost break even.

Well, nobody plays every game. That would be insane. The question now is: can we use some very simple methods to find an edge from either the dogs or the favourites? I know for a fact that you can find an edge using sophisticated probability models and shopping for the best odds BUT for this article we would like to find simple methods for the average punter, who likes to bet for fun and TV-games, and not just for profit.

How about playing only home dogs, home favourites, away dogs, away favourites?

Premier League Bundesleague Serie A La Liga Premier

home fav 0.98 0.91 0.94 0.93

home dogs 0.84 0.94 0.77 1.03

away fav 0.91 0.96 0.95 0.93

away dogs 0.66 0.94 0.71 0.97

home fav 1.55 0.98 0.91 0.90 0.92

away fav 1.55 0.85 0.95 0.95 0.92

Home dogs in La Liga, home favourites under 1.55 in Serie A and away favourites under 1.55 in Premier- and Bundesleague and Serie A would have been a winning bet. Other possible good bets were home favourites in general in Premier, away fav 1.55 1.02 0.95 0.95 0.96

away fav 1.55 0.89 0.99 0.99 0.96

So, in Premier League, play every home favourite and big away favourite, dogs in Bundesleague and big away favourites, big favourites in Serie A and dogs and big away favourites in Spain, and pick the highest odd possible, and you will be just fine!

In the future I will go through more powerful, mathematical methods for finding an overlay in sports betting.

Understanding Different Types of Soccer Betting Odds

We found this amazing site which is the greatest resource for online soccer betting, providing players with all the information they need before they make a wager. The popularity of soccer betting comes from the high popularity of the sport itself. Millions of people watch soccer to either cheer on their favorite team or just to get a hand on the adrenaline of the game. The most important difference between soccer betting and other forms of gambling is that it takes some time to become profitable and start earning real money. However once you have learned some basic tips – as outlined here, you’ll be able to enjoy higher than average returns on your wagers.

The trick in soccer betting is studying past soccer games to get a feeling for what the best odds are and to be able to tell if one team is going to win or not. While this may sound like an obvious piece of advice, you’d be surprised at how many players loose site of the “big picture” when betting on soccer games.

There are also many soccer tips you can find online forums that analyze game stats. Probably one of the best soccer betting tips is to take a look at all the online sports books before making your first bet; different sports books offer different bonuses and different odds, all of which affect your bottom line as a sports bettor. Therefore, simply taking some time to choose the best odds will put you in the right track to win big. Some of the best sports books online are William Hill, Ladbrokes, 888 Sport and Bet 365.

Soccer betting odds are not as favorable when the point spread (also known as an ‘Asian handicap’ is involved. So for beginners it is recommended to start playing with straight bets. This type of betting is also known as 1X2 where 1 is the home team, 2 is the away team, and X is a tie.

Because the skill in picking a winner based on a point spread is more difficult we recommend going with 1X2 wagers as predicting which team is going to win without giving an exact amount of points is a simpler task. Other ways to get a winning start when betting on soccer is to simply bet on the home team each time. While the odds are usually lower on home teams – they outperform both tie bets and away teams by a wide margin.

To increase your chances of winning, you should first stick to games where you know both teams and can easily tell what their behavior on the field will be like. You chances for success at betting on soccer will only decrease if you are betting on unknown teams, or are chasing long shots with no realistic chance of winning only to make a big score.

The Definitive Art of Bookmaking and Odds Compiling

To appreciate the Job of the Bookmaker we must first dissect the methods and criteria to which he lends himself.

He must create or compile the Odds of each and every horse race on every race card. Every single day.

This is a very difficult Job and mistakes are often made.

So in order to gain an edge when betting we need to find any faults or mistakes that may occur during the compiling process.

The complete process of compiling will be known as creating “The Book”.

This will be addressed in the following 9 stages.

Understanding the numbers is vital to anyone serious about betting to win!

This will be outlined in the following nine stages-

The Odds

The Fractions

The Percentages

The Decimals

The probability

The value

The Margins

The predicted chance of success

Compiling the Book

Stage 1

Let us start with the Odds

There are two types of odds

Absolute odds and indefinite odds

To distinguish between the two-

Absolute odds are the toss of a coin is 50/50 or Evens

Therefore you have a 50% chance of it being Heads and a 50% chance of it being Tails

Now if I was to offer you 5/1 for it being Heads this would be known as indefinite odds, an enticer or a teaser if you like!

Basically all bookmakers offer indefinite odds that are unbalanced and designed to entice

This is where they incorporate the Margin/the over round / the over broke or spread

Two Sides two every coin

For every bet there is a need for two parties to have different opinions of a betting outcome

For the purpose of this exercise these will be known as

Party A. (the Bookmaker/layer. Or he who offers the odds)

And

Party B. (the Backer/the bettor or he who takes the odds)

There are also two sides to the actual odds

These are known as odds on and odds against

What this basically means is that if party A Offers 2/1 and Party B. Accepts those odds

Then

Party A will have odds of 1/ 2 and Party B will have odds of 2/ 1

This works with “odds on” equations to.

For example-

The- “odds on” Wager offered by party A. Maybe 1/6

In this case party B will take the odds of 1/6 and party A would secure himself odds of 6/1 + His/hers profit Margin.

(This profit Margin is known as the over round. The over broke. The spread or just profit margin)

Now for a bookmaker to guarantee himself overall profit he must apply a simple rule known as “odds coupling.

Odds coupling

This is always applied when compiling a book for any individual event

So realistically the odds on offer are indefinite, you would not get 1/3 for party B opposing 3/1 for party A

Basically “Odds coupling” is when the odds are slightly disproportionate to each other when compiling both sides of probability to a bet

This can easily be recognised when betting on betting exchanges where the layside may offer 5.4 and the back side may offer 4.9

(Not the same/disproportioned odds)

What this means is that if party B is getting 4/ 1 then party B must adjust his odds when compiling to incorporate a small percentage of profit for his/her book ( The over round )

This is where we need to convert the odds from fractions into percentages and then back to fractions again.

So let us say we have odds of 3/1

This tells us that there are 4 parts to this bet (3/1 is the same as 3+1 when betting)

Now what this tells us is that Party A has 3 chances in 4 of winning

And party B only has 1 chance in 4 of winning

Therefore if we convert these odds to percentages

Party A has a 75% chance of winning opposed to Party B who only has a 25% chance of winning)

Now to ensure the bookmaker or party A incorporates is over round or profit margin he must at least adjust his percentage to 76% this would give him a 1% Margin on the Spread or 76%/25%

So effectively odds of 3/1 will not be coupled with 1/ 3 when making the book. Instead the odds may appear more like this

Party B would use the odds of 2/7 instead of 1/3 because this will allow him a 77.52% profit ratio if he wins

And party B on the other side of the odds would be 3/1 allowing him a probability of 25% as a winning chance according to the odds on offer to him

As you can see Party A has incorporated this margin on just one horse if he did this in a ten horse race he would have created an over round of 25.2% this is made up of the odd 2.52% he has added to each selection by disproportioning the opposing odds

Therefore the definition of odds coupling is to disproportionate opposing odds from the layers side Party A.

Opposed to proportioned odds on the backers side /Party B

Stage 2

The Fractions

The Fractions are quite simply percentages and Decimals written in a different form

Again there are two sides to a bet

Party A.The Bookmaker/layer

Party B. The backer

If the odds were absolute or real, a table of odds would look something like this

Bookmaker Backer

1/3 3/1

75% chance of winning 25% chance of winning

In an odd’s on wager the tables would be the other way round

Bookmaker Backer

3/1 1/3

25% chance of winning 75% chance of winning

Stage 3

The percentages

The percentages are the same as Fractions and Decimals also written in a different form

Bookmaker Backer

75% chance of winning 25% chance of winning

1/3 3/1

Etc…

Stage 4

The Decimals

Decimal odds are a simpler way of working out the odds and don’t give you a headache every time you want to place a bet.

Do you know the difference between 2/9 and 4/7?

No? Well, not many people do. But with decimals you’d know instantly.

So, how do decimal odds work? Well, if the decimal odds are 4.4 and you place a back bet of £10 and win, your total return is £10 x 4.4 = £44.(less any commissions that may be added by the betting exchange or bookmaker)

This is equivalent to a traditional price of 7/2

The key part to remember is that decimal odds always include the unit stake – thus every price you see on Betfair will be >1.

Example-

Fractional odds represent the profit – 5/1 means you will win five pounds for every one pound staked. And odds of 5/1 will shown as 5+1 the (unit stake) thus showing 6.0 as the equivalent odds

Likewise odds of 7/2 are calculated as follows 7 divided by 2=3.5 plus the unit stake >1 now equates to 4.5

So 7/2 is 3.5 + 1 which equals 4.5

This may take some time to come to terms with but in the meantime you can go to the “Betfair” website and use there odds converter tool absolutely free

You’ll be up to par in no time!

Also once you can calculate fractions to decimals it makes working out predicted percentage much easier

Example-

Odds of 5/2 are converted to percentages as follows

5 divided by 2 =2.5

Now divide into 100 (100%)

This equals 100/2.5 = 40

Therefore 5/2 represents a predicted 40% of that bet winning if the odds are absolute or real

Stage 5

The Probabilities

This is the biggest illusion when betting on horse racing

Why?

Firstly every horse in a race as some chance of winning

Therefore we must assume that all horses start off on a level playing field and thereafter a book is compiled by the odds compiler or bookmaker to create an in-balance

Some selections will be judged to have a greater chance and some to have a lesser chance of winning and therefore odds will fluctuate across the book

Shorter odds will be offered to selections that are deemed to be a better choice when predicting a winner

And longer odds for those expected to have less chance of winning

This is where the backer can obtain value in there betting!

Stage 6

Value

Definition: Obtaining a better price from the odds on offer than are predicted to be correct

In simple terms if the odd on offer are 3/1 then it is predicted that the selection has a 25% chance of winning

But what if the absolute or real chance of winning was 40%

Then the odds should actually be 5/2

(5 divided by 2 =2.5) (100% divided by 2.5 =40%)

If this was the case you would achieve odds of 3/1 which would return 3 times the stake placed from a bet that should only be returning 2.5 times your stake at 5/2

Also you have got higher odds for a 40% probability of winning opposed to the odds compilers prediction being that the selection of 3/1 should only give a winning chance of 25%

So therefore in this case providing the selection goes on to win

You would have gained some value!

Stage 7

The Margins

When a backer chooses his or hers selections he/she usually does this by reading or studying various items of form

Or a system based on some criteria

Or a tipster

What he/she often fails to account for when placing bets are-

The over round/over broke/ profit margins that are incorporated in the odds on offer or the spread as it is known

The following articles and example will simplify the structure of the book to enable the understanding of absolute or real percentages of the “Book”

Stage 8

The predicted chance of success

A great way evaluate your predicted chance of achieving a winning outcome is to use the following rule.

The rule is-

“Whatever you think, think the opposite”

Example of this rule is as follows-

If you are offered odds of 3/1 or 4.0 this means that you have a 1 in 4 chance of success provided that the odds are absolute

This equates to you having a 25% chance of success.

Apply the rule and. Think the opposite!

This means you have a 75% chance of losing

(which does not include the over round margin or spread)

All of a sudden the bet does not look so appealing, this is where we have to use our own judgement based on fact, form and analysis to allow you to decide whether or not you think the chance of winning is greater than predicted, for that selection

Stage 9

Compiling and creating “the book”

As a bookmaker.A knowledge of percentages is vital and for many learning these numbers will become second nature

In order for a bookmaker to secure a profit from the book the percentages for all runners combined must together equate to a number greater than 100%

Occasionally a bookmaker will compile or adjust odds to make the book under round or over broke in order to attract business (All runners combined equal less than 100%)

In doing so he puts is book at risk of potentially making a loss

However in most circumstance the book is over round

Example of this is shown in the following race compilation-

This is taken from a real race from Friday October 7th 2011

Wolverhampton 18.10

The 32 RedPoker Median Auction Stake

Odds for each selection

Selection

Odds converted to percentage

True Odds all 9/1

True chance of winning

100% divide by 9+1=10%

Evens

Chelsea Mick

50%

9/1 true odds

10% average chance of winning

3/1

Oblitereight

25%

13/2

Mr Fong

13.30%

7/1

Elmora

12.50%

10/1

Hi There

9.10%

12/1

Statement of Intent

7.70%

25/1

Kings Future

3.80%

25/1

Path Finder

3.80%

25/1

The Cornish Cowboy

3.80%

50/1

Tresabella

2.00%

Totals=131%

True totals are ten horses with and average 10% per horse equal to-

100%

131% – 100% = 31% as the Over round or Spread or Profit Margin

Betting forecast- Evs Chelsea Mick, 3/1 Oblitereight, 13/2 Mr Fong, 7/1 Elmora, 10/1 Hi There, 12/1 Statementofintent, 25/1 King’s Future, 25/1 Path Finder, 25/1 Thecornishcowboy, 50/1 Tresabella

Thus- the over round here is 31% is achieved by the bookmaker for this race

In theory a backer who staked according to the percentage on every selection would stake 131 units. However whatever horse wins will only result in 100 units being returned. Therefore the bookmaker would make 31 units profit or 31%

This is generally how a book would look with an over round included in the Odds or prices!

Acquire Baccarat Winners Strategy for Success

Other than just being the game that Ian Fleming used as the backdrop for the first ever book he wrote that featured the now-legendary British spy, James Bond, (switched to poker in the newer vision featuring Daniel Craig) baccarat has always been sought after by casino lovers starting from the beginning of the last century when the game gained notoriety through the Wild West casinos and gaming halls.

Warning:

But, before I continue, I have to warn you. Beware of the many frauds online and offline that promise you that their system will break the casino. Don’t purchase any of these books or online manuals. Even if you use the Martingale system, you will crash as soon as you reach the highest amount of money you can place as allowed by the casino. Likewise, don’t count cards as well.

Why?

Baccarat is a game based on luck. Neither can its outcome be predicted nor can you calculate odds of receiving a certain card. So, just give up on these types of tactics. They are doomed to land you in hot water.

So, should I just give up and leave the outcome to chance?

You can, but why should you not try and improve your chances by practicing some of the easy to pick up tips mentioned here? At least, try them out before you decide.

1) Look out for the baccarat table that uses the least amount of card decks.

Because a large amount of card decks means that your chances drop, it is advisable to try and locate the table that uses as little decks as possible. Ask around. But, if you can find one that plays with only one deck, watch it. Usually, casinos reserve this baccarat table for the high-rollers.

2) Remember that the Bank Wins, Usually.

Most newcomers to baccarat follow this as if it was one of the ten commandments. This causes many others to stay away from this strategy. But, you shouldn’t. If possible, bet with the banker whenever possible. Do this and the odds will work in your favour.

3) Play with an amount you are willing to lose.

Though not specific to baccarat, this is one of the major reasons that many people play badly as soon as money comes into the equation. The pressure of losing too much cash causes the most skillful of players to blunder. When you are wagering money that you cannot afford to lose, this pressure will destroy your game.

4) Before joining a table, watch those playing.

One of the best methods to win is to select a table where the players are not very good. To do that you must stay back, observe and judge their performances. Another thing to look for is how the role of the banker rotates between the players. Under no circumstance should you join a baccarat game before you have surveyed the table.

5) Learn control.

Even before you pick a table, you must sort out exactly the amount of money you are going to bet with. Set this figure by judging how much cash you can lose without becoming too nervous. If you lose more than you had decided on, quit. Every game you play after you cross that sum will be risky because your mind won’t forget that you are wagering with money you cannot afford to lose.

6) Stay away from high-roller baccarat games.

Even though the temptation to make big bucks is great, stay clear of these tables. Not only will you stand the chance to lose all your money in a few rounds, just the thought will remove any enjoyment you would have derived. If possible, stick to the lower betting tables or try Mini baccarat where you can place wager of about twenty-five cents.

Conclusion:

Don’t let the rumours about baccarat scare you away from playing this exquisite card game. Its easy to learn, and if you participate without playing rashly, you can make a decent amount of money.