The Concept of Value in Sports Betting!

In sports betting you need to make sure that your bets (and trades) are good value in order to make a profit. If you do not do this you will still win bets but profits may be harder to achieve.

Let me explain this last statement. I actually lose more bets than I win – but the prices or odds at which I bet compensate for the losing plays.

If you bet all season long on the NY Yankees (US Baseball) or Arsenal FC (English Premiership) – to win each game – you will probably end up with a fairly good winning strike rate – but it is unlikely that you will make any money. The odds will be ‘short’ and you may do better to try and predict when these teams might falter – and bet against them at the over inflated prices being offered on the opposing teams. These opposing teams will most likely offer the value – as they are not the popular betting choice.

When we flip a coin, we know that the true chance of it turning up heads or tails is 50% or ‘evens’ (1/1).

As an example we set up a ‘coin flipping’ betting event. A neutral party begins to flip the coin. With each subsequent flip there is a definite preference for heads in the betting. The bookmaker or sportsbook takes this in his stride, he has already set the odds at 10/11 (-110 US) for either outcome which takes into account his commission. He knows that this trend is fairly usual as heads is often favored in this type of event. He decides, however, to balance his books a little by reducing his odds on heads to 5/6 and increasing tails to 1/1.

Heads is now an even shorter price and represents no value. Tails now stands at a slightly better price but still only represents the ‘true odds’ or likelihood of winning at 1/1 or 50% and so is not value.

The event continues and still the betting favors heads. Why? Well the ‘average bettor’ does not really understand ‘value’, he does not understand that heads might well be a bad bet or hold no value. He just enjoys betting and since ‘heads’ is winning – he wants to bet on heads.

The bookmaker balances his books again with a dramatic shortening of the odds for heads to 4/9 and a lengthening to 6/4 (+150 US), on tails.

At this point the professional bettor would step in and begin to place bets on tails. He knows that he has got value at 6/4 for an event where the ‘true odds’ of success are 1/1.

Mechanical Sports Betting System

If you read any book about sports betting or any kind of article about sports betting, what will you learn? Bet the underdogs! Every book, website, tout, service, you name it, are always telling you to bet the dogs. If everyone is betting the dogs, are the odds for favourites too high?

European football leagues are starting soon and to prepare myself for them, I did a small study using the data from the last two seasons from Premier League, Bundesleague, Serie A and La Liga Primera.

Premier League

Dogs 760 / 542 / 0.71 / -21.8k

Fav. 760 / 728 / 0.96 / -3.2k

Bundesleague

Dogs 612 / 578 / 0.94 / -3.4k

Fav. 612 / 563 / 0.92 / -4.9k

Serie A

Dogs 760 / 551 / 0.73 / -20.9k

Fav. 760 / 717 / 0.94 / -4.3k

La Liga Premier

Dogs 760 / 748 / 0.98 / -1.2k

Fav. 760 / 704 / 0.93 / -5.6k

How do you read that table? Let’s take Premier League for example. In the past 2 seasons you have had 760 games. If you had played every dog, your total odds would have been 542 (btw, I am using the European style odds, 1.35 etc.), return 0.71 (542/760) and for a $100 bet on every dog, you would have lost $21800.

What is interesting is that playing the favourites is a much better tactic in general, IF(!) you play every game. Only in Spain, your best tactic is to play every dog and almost break even.

Well, nobody plays every game. That would be insane. The question now is: can we use some very simple methods to find an edge from either the dogs or the favourites? I know for a fact that you can find an edge using sophisticated probability models and shopping for the best odds BUT for this article we would like to find simple methods for the average punter, who likes to bet for fun and TV-games, and not just for profit.

How about playing only home dogs, home favourites, away dogs, away favourites?

Premier League Bundesleague Serie A La Liga Premier

home fav 0.98 0.91 0.94 0.93

home dogs 0.84 0.94 0.77 1.03

away fav 0.91 0.96 0.95 0.93

away dogs 0.66 0.94 0.71 0.97

home fav 1.55 0.98 0.91 0.90 0.92

away fav 1.55 0.85 0.95 0.95 0.92

Home dogs in La Liga, home favourites under 1.55 in Serie A and away favourites under 1.55 in Premier- and Bundesleague and Serie A would have been a winning bet. Other possible good bets were home favourites in general in Premier, away fav 1.55 1.02 0.95 0.95 0.96

away fav 1.55 0.89 0.99 0.99 0.96

So, in Premier League, play every home favourite and big away favourite, dogs in Bundesleague and big away favourites, big favourites in Serie A and dogs and big away favourites in Spain, and pick the highest odd possible, and you will be just fine!

In the future I will go through more powerful, mathematical methods for finding an overlay in sports betting.

Understanding Different Types of Soccer Betting Odds

We found this amazing site which is the greatest resource for online soccer betting, providing players with all the information they need before they make a wager. The popularity of soccer betting comes from the high popularity of the sport itself. Millions of people watch soccer to either cheer on their favorite team or just to get a hand on the adrenaline of the game. The most important difference between soccer betting and other forms of gambling is that it takes some time to become profitable and start earning real money. However once you have learned some basic tips – as outlined here, you’ll be able to enjoy higher than average returns on your wagers.

The trick in soccer betting is studying past soccer games to get a feeling for what the best odds are and to be able to tell if one team is going to win or not. While this may sound like an obvious piece of advice, you’d be surprised at how many players loose site of the “big picture” when betting on soccer games.

There are also many soccer tips you can find online forums that analyze game stats. Probably one of the best soccer betting tips is to take a look at all the online sports books before making your first bet; different sports books offer different bonuses and different odds, all of which affect your bottom line as a sports bettor. Therefore, simply taking some time to choose the best odds will put you in the right track to win big. Some of the best sports books online are William Hill, Ladbrokes, 888 Sport and Bet 365.

Soccer betting odds are not as favorable when the point spread (also known as an ‘Asian handicap’ is involved. So for beginners it is recommended to start playing with straight bets. This type of betting is also known as 1X2 where 1 is the home team, 2 is the away team, and X is a tie.

Because the skill in picking a winner based on a point spread is more difficult we recommend going with 1X2 wagers as predicting which team is going to win without giving an exact amount of points is a simpler task. Other ways to get a winning start when betting on soccer is to simply bet on the home team each time. While the odds are usually lower on home teams – they outperform both tie bets and away teams by a wide margin.

To increase your chances of winning, you should first stick to games where you know both teams and can easily tell what their behavior on the field will be like. You chances for success at betting on soccer will only decrease if you are betting on unknown teams, or are chasing long shots with no realistic chance of winning only to make a big score.

Best Online Sports Betting Sites for Your Reference

It is hard to find a safe and trusted site where you can do online sports betting. In order to find one, you need further research. Here are the top five of the best online sports betting sites that you can try.

Bet365.com is one of the most establish and oldest site that offers a sociable interface layout for online bettors. They started since the year of 1974. It is an outstanding sports-book for those gamblers who played online that likes the choices and selections of different online sports betting. It is secure to play in this website. They also offer almost everything like greyhound racing to handball and dart tournaments.

Another online site is called Bodog.com. It is one of the very first online sports betting website. They built the website for the principle of security, professionalism and also for enjoyment that’s why they always ranked as one of the best sports betting site. They started since the year 1995.

BetCris.com is also one of the top five which you can visit because they offer specialized action and plenty of betting selections for European gambling public. They started at the year of 1985.

Another one of the best online betting sites is the BetJamaica.com. They offer online sport bettors a sports book that has professional management. They have a strong, trustworthy sports book with excellent funds and have good software in order for the customer to have secure betting. They also have an excellent customer service that’s why they are one of the best sports betting site. BetJamaica.com started since the year 2003.

Last but one of the top 5 best is the BookMaker.com. it is the sister company of the BetCris.com. They are one of the most well-known and the suggested gambling site online. They offer substantial bonuses and it has no upfront fees.

BookMakers.com also covers a wide range of online gaming selections everything from racing events and sports. They also offer online casino games that allow the costumer to play with other players. You don’t have to worry about the safety of your winnings and betting because they have safe methods in depositing and withdrawing your money. They started since the year 1996.

Remember, always try to read up the necessary information before you bet, and see the odds given by various websites for the same game to get the best leverage.