The Concept of Value in Sports Betting!

In sports betting you need to make sure that your bets (and trades) are good value in order to make a profit. If you do not do this you will still win bets but profits may be harder to achieve.

Let me explain this last statement. I actually lose more bets than I win – but the prices or odds at which I bet compensate for the losing plays.

If you bet all season long on the NY Yankees (US Baseball) or Arsenal FC (English Premiership) – to win each game – you will probably end up with a fairly good winning strike rate – but it is unlikely that you will make any money. The odds will be ‘short’ and you may do better to try and predict when these teams might falter – and bet against them at the over inflated prices being offered on the opposing teams. These opposing teams will most likely offer the value – as they are not the popular betting choice.

When we flip a coin, we know that the true chance of it turning up heads or tails is 50% or ‘evens’ (1/1).

As an example we set up a ‘coin flipping’ betting event. A neutral party begins to flip the coin. With each subsequent flip there is a definite preference for heads in the betting. The bookmaker or sportsbook takes this in his stride, he has already set the odds at 10/11 (-110 US) for either outcome which takes into account his commission. He knows that this trend is fairly usual as heads is often favored in this type of event. He decides, however, to balance his books a little by reducing his odds on heads to 5/6 and increasing tails to 1/1.

Heads is now an even shorter price and represents no value. Tails now stands at a slightly better price but still only represents the ‘true odds’ or likelihood of winning at 1/1 or 50% and so is not value.

The event continues and still the betting favors heads. Why? Well the ‘average bettor’ does not really understand ‘value’, he does not understand that heads might well be a bad bet or hold no value. He just enjoys betting and since ‘heads’ is winning – he wants to bet on heads.

The bookmaker balances his books again with a dramatic shortening of the odds for heads to 4/9 and a lengthening to 6/4 (+150 US), on tails.

At this point the professional bettor would step in and begin to place bets on tails. He knows that he has got value at 6/4 for an event where the ‘true odds’ of success are 1/1.

Mechanical Sports Betting System

If you read any book about sports betting or any kind of article about sports betting, what will you learn? Bet the underdogs! Every book, website, tout, service, you name it, are always telling you to bet the dogs. If everyone is betting the dogs, are the odds for favourites too high?

European football leagues are starting soon and to prepare myself for them, I did a small study using the data from the last two seasons from Premier League, Bundesleague, Serie A and La Liga Primera.

Premier League

Dogs 760 / 542 / 0.71 / -21.8k

Fav. 760 / 728 / 0.96 / -3.2k

Bundesleague

Dogs 612 / 578 / 0.94 / -3.4k

Fav. 612 / 563 / 0.92 / -4.9k

Serie A

Dogs 760 / 551 / 0.73 / -20.9k

Fav. 760 / 717 / 0.94 / -4.3k

La Liga Premier

Dogs 760 / 748 / 0.98 / -1.2k

Fav. 760 / 704 / 0.93 / -5.6k

How do you read that table? Let’s take Premier League for example. In the past 2 seasons you have had 760 games. If you had played every dog, your total odds would have been 542 (btw, I am using the European style odds, 1.35 etc.), return 0.71 (542/760) and for a $100 bet on every dog, you would have lost $21800.

What is interesting is that playing the favourites is a much better tactic in general, IF(!) you play every game. Only in Spain, your best tactic is to play every dog and almost break even.

Well, nobody plays every game. That would be insane. The question now is: can we use some very simple methods to find an edge from either the dogs or the favourites? I know for a fact that you can find an edge using sophisticated probability models and shopping for the best odds BUT for this article we would like to find simple methods for the average punter, who likes to bet for fun and TV-games, and not just for profit.

How about playing only home dogs, home favourites, away dogs, away favourites?

Premier League Bundesleague Serie A La Liga Premier

home fav 0.98 0.91 0.94 0.93

home dogs 0.84 0.94 0.77 1.03

away fav 0.91 0.96 0.95 0.93

away dogs 0.66 0.94 0.71 0.97

home fav 1.55 0.98 0.91 0.90 0.92

away fav 1.55 0.85 0.95 0.95 0.92

Home dogs in La Liga, home favourites under 1.55 in Serie A and away favourites under 1.55 in Premier- and Bundesleague and Serie A would have been a winning bet. Other possible good bets were home favourites in general in Premier, away fav 1.55 1.02 0.95 0.95 0.96

away fav 1.55 0.89 0.99 0.99 0.96

So, in Premier League, play every home favourite and big away favourite, dogs in Bundesleague and big away favourites, big favourites in Serie A and dogs and big away favourites in Spain, and pick the highest odd possible, and you will be just fine!

In the future I will go through more powerful, mathematical methods for finding an overlay in sports betting.

Best Online Sports Betting Sites for Your Reference

It is hard to find a safe and trusted site where you can do online sports betting. In order to find one, you need further research. Here are the top five of the best online sports betting sites that you can try.

Bet365.com is one of the most establish and oldest site that offers a sociable interface layout for online bettors. They started since the year of 1974. It is an outstanding sports-book for those gamblers who played online that likes the choices and selections of different online sports betting. It is secure to play in this website. They also offer almost everything like greyhound racing to handball and dart tournaments.

Another online site is called Bodog.com. It is one of the very first online sports betting website. They built the website for the principle of security, professionalism and also for enjoyment that’s why they always ranked as one of the best sports betting site. They started since the year 1995.

BetCris.com is also one of the top five which you can visit because they offer specialized action and plenty of betting selections for European gambling public. They started at the year of 1985.

Another one of the best online betting sites is the BetJamaica.com. They offer online sport bettors a sports book that has professional management. They have a strong, trustworthy sports book with excellent funds and have good software in order for the customer to have secure betting. They also have an excellent customer service that’s why they are one of the best sports betting site. BetJamaica.com started since the year 2003.

Last but one of the top 5 best is the BookMaker.com. it is the sister company of the BetCris.com. They are one of the most well-known and the suggested gambling site online. They offer substantial bonuses and it has no upfront fees.

BookMakers.com also covers a wide range of online gaming selections everything from racing events and sports. They also offer online casino games that allow the costumer to play with other players. You don’t have to worry about the safety of your winnings and betting because they have safe methods in depositing and withdrawing your money. They started since the year 1996.

Remember, always try to read up the necessary information before you bet, and see the odds given by various websites for the same game to get the best leverage.

How to Get Started With Sports Betting

Sports betting is simply placing a wager on a sporting event. You are betting that your team, horse, dog, or driver will win. If they do win, so do you! If they lose, you lose your bet amount. Sports betting takes place all over the world, though in the United States this type of betting is not as highly accepted as it is in Europe.

Online sports betting is probably the best option for those who are interesting in trying it for the first time. If you have never tried online sports betting, you are missing so much fun and excitement, and it can all happen in the comfortable surroundings of your home! The art of sports betting can seem confusing at first, but once you are familiar with some of the jargon that is used to explain the concepts and logic behind each type of bet, it is all much easier to understand.

One of the best ways for you to experience this engaging way to bet on your favourite racing and sporting events is to get acquainted with online sports betting. However, in order to best take advantage of all that sports betting has to offer, you need to know a little more about it.

Sports Betting – The Odds

How does online sports betting work? You should start by studying the odds for the sporting event you are most interested in placing a wager upon. When using online sports betting, you can find these odds in the various online sports books used by Internet gamers everywhere. You must open an account with an online sports book before you can place your bet, but this is simple to do.

Once you have chosen where you are going to do your sports betting, you need to decide how you are going to place your bet. There are many different ways for you to wager your chosen amount of money, but first, let’s talk about the spread and how it can affect the amount you bet.

Sports Betting – The Spread

The spread is a point advantage in sports betting, which is usually given to the team that is generally expected to lose a particular sporting event. If you decide that you will bet on the team that is expected to win, they will have to win by more than the spread number and cover the spread before you are considered to have chosen correctly. If you choose the team that is expected to lose, that team will have to lose by less than the spread number in order for your pick to be considered correct. If by chance the team wins by the number of points that were chosen as the spread, the game is called a push.

No one who engages in sports betting wins a thing if a game is called as a push, but you do get the amount of your original bet back. The point spread is done in order to make the all of the bets come out even for the sports book, and is usually done for sports such as basketball or football.

Sports Betting – The Bet

If you were to bet against the spread, most likely you would place a type of bet called an 11-10, or spread bet. By betting $11, you win $10 if your team’s score covers the spread. This is another way that the online sports book makes its money.

An over-under bet is also an 11-10 bet. With this type of bet, the total score of the two teams that played will be either over or under the total score that was listed before the game was played. Betting on the score being over is called ‘betting on the ball’. Betting on the score being under is called ‘betting on the clock’.

A proposition bet is a type of bet where the online sports book chooses what the odds and the conditions of the bet are going to be. This type of bet can be most interesting, even a little fun at times, for the conditions can be as unusual as which of two football teams will make the most touchdowns, which of two basketball teams will score the most three pointers, or even which individual player will make a certain move for the team. The odds for this kind of bet are sometimes 11-10, but can be better or worse depending on the circumstances.

A parlay bet happens when you are betting on more than one event, usually three. This type of bet gives you a much higher payout if you should win, but the catch is that all the events you bet on will have to win. If even one of them loses, they all lose, and you lose the amount that you bet.

A money line bet seems rather formidable, especially to someone who is just getting into online sports betting, but it is really one of the simplest bets of all. It is also called a Straight Up bet, and there is no point spread to consider. You will just choose your sport, and then the team you think will be either the underdog or the favourite. In a money line bet, the sports book will have numbers listed that are in the hundreds, with either a plus or a minus sign beside them. These numbers are considered the ‘money line’, and are the multipliers for the bets.

If the money line for your team is listed as 100, you will make an even bet. This means you will wager the same amount that you will get back. If the money line reads -110, then you must come up with the amount of money you have decided to bet, plus 10%. This extra 10% is known by the name of ‘juice’. If the money line for your team is listed as +110, then you simply place your bet with the amount you choose to bet. If you win a money line bet, you get the amount of your bet plus 10% back. For example, if you bet $10.00 and $1.00 in juice on a -110 money line and it wins, you get $21. 00.

A teaser bet in sports betting is actually a proposition bet that allows you to change the odds for the bet in either direction so that the wager is in your favour. You can go up or down in points, and must choose at least two teams, as is done in a parlay bet. You can have as many as 6 separate teams included on a teaser bet, but all of the teams chosen have to win in order for your bet to be declared a winning one. Once the games are over, the points from the teaser bet are added or subtracted from the final scores. The odds for teaser bets can be different each time, so it is a good plan to always check the sports book before placing your bet.

A tip to remember is that generally, when placing a wager on any sport that can finish with a high score, such as football, you will have a spread. Sports where the ending score is low, such as in baseball will have a money line. Remember also that favourable odds on a game can sometimes work in your favour. Online sports betting allows you to easily go from sports book to sports book to find the best odds.