Mechanical Sports Betting System

If you read any book about sports betting or any kind of article about sports betting, what will you learn? Bet the underdogs! Every book, website, tout, service, you name it, are always telling you to bet the dogs. If everyone is betting the dogs, are the odds for favourites too high?

European football leagues are starting soon and to prepare myself for them, I did a small study using the data from the last two seasons from Premier League, Bundesleague, Serie A and La Liga Primera.

Premier League

Dogs 760 / 542 / 0.71 / -21.8k

Fav. 760 / 728 / 0.96 / -3.2k

Bundesleague

Dogs 612 / 578 / 0.94 / -3.4k

Fav. 612 / 563 / 0.92 / -4.9k

Serie A

Dogs 760 / 551 / 0.73 / -20.9k

Fav. 760 / 717 / 0.94 / -4.3k

La Liga Premier

Dogs 760 / 748 / 0.98 / -1.2k

Fav. 760 / 704 / 0.93 / -5.6k

How do you read that table? Let’s take Premier League for example. In the past 2 seasons you have had 760 games. If you had played every dog, your total odds would have been 542 (btw, I am using the European style odds, 1.35 etc.), return 0.71 (542/760) and for a $100 bet on every dog, you would have lost $21800.

What is interesting is that playing the favourites is a much better tactic in general, IF(!) you play every game. Only in Spain, your best tactic is to play every dog and almost break even.

Well, nobody plays every game. That would be insane. The question now is: can we use some very simple methods to find an edge from either the dogs or the favourites? I know for a fact that you can find an edge using sophisticated probability models and shopping for the best odds BUT for this article we would like to find simple methods for the average punter, who likes to bet for fun and TV-games, and not just for profit.

How about playing only home dogs, home favourites, away dogs, away favourites?

Premier League Bundesleague Serie A La Liga Premier

home fav 0.98 0.91 0.94 0.93

home dogs 0.84 0.94 0.77 1.03

away fav 0.91 0.96 0.95 0.93

away dogs 0.66 0.94 0.71 0.97

home fav 1.55 0.98 0.91 0.90 0.92

away fav 1.55 0.85 0.95 0.95 0.92

Home dogs in La Liga, home favourites under 1.55 in Serie A and away favourites under 1.55 in Premier- and Bundesleague and Serie A would have been a winning bet. Other possible good bets were home favourites in general in Premier, away fav 1.55 1.02 0.95 0.95 0.96

away fav 1.55 0.89 0.99 0.99 0.96

So, in Premier League, play every home favourite and big away favourite, dogs in Bundesleague and big away favourites, big favourites in Serie A and dogs and big away favourites in Spain, and pick the highest odd possible, and you will be just fine!

In the future I will go through more powerful, mathematical methods for finding an overlay in sports betting.

Sports Betting Strategies System, Sports Book Tips

How much would you value this gift, how much money would you invest when placing a bet? Predicting sports picks is an art that takes an incredible amount of research and analysis in order to find the winning selections. An unbelievable amount of data is collected, from statistical data to environmental data, once this precious information is gathered, it is entered into a computer software program to aid making the process of establishing the best possible game result. But that is not all, once the first part of the equation is compiled and completed (data entered in the software program), the human element is also added to the equation. The coaching staff, the location of the game being played, players injury reports are also taken under consideration and many other factors that can affect the turnout of the match or the game. Finally when the second part of the equation is added, a more precise and accurate prediction can then be taken regarding the outcome of an event.

Betting online is a very similar form of gaming or gambling, There are many risks associated with sports betting, you have to be reasonable about it, no body really knows what’s in the bag so pay the mortgage first along with the rest of your bills, a good idea is to put some money aside for the rainy days, of course everyone has to enjoy life and spend a bit of fun time following one’s passion, so with that being said, in sports betting like any type of gambling , the better has to take a chance, make his decision based on intelligent research to minimize his or her loss. Any form of gambling has its risks and probabilities. Is today your lucky day , you will never know until you try.